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JANUARY 26,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:46 P.M. ET:

TRUMP WALKS – Biggest story in politics tonight.  Donald Trump has announced he will not participate in this week's Republican debate in Iowa, hosted by Fox, because he doesn't feel Fox has shown him proper respect.  He's especially upset at the tough questions Megyn Kelly asked during the first Fox-hosted debate in August.  I've never seen anything quite like this.  Trump is putting on his tough-guy face, but he looks ridiculous.  He's afraid of Megyn Kelly?  Pundits are all over the map on this, some saying that his supporters will love him stiffing a TV news outlet.  Others aren't so sure.  Put me in the second category.  Candidates for president are expected to debate their opponents, especially in the week before voting.  And the Iowa caucuses are Tuesday.  This has the potential seriously to disrupt the Trump momentum.

OH, THE PANDERING – From ABC News:   A second Clinton administration could mean a future Justice Barack Obama.  At a campaign event in Deocorah, Iowa on Tuesday, Hillary Clinton lit up when a voter asked her if she would consider appointing the president to the Supreme Court should she win the White House.  "Wow, what a great idea. No one has ever suggested that to me, I love that, wow," the Democratic presidential candidate responded. "He may have a few other things to do but I tell you that's a great idea."  Clinton went on to talk about how the next president could have to appoint up to three Supreme Court justices, but she then circled back.  "I would certainly take that under advisement," she told the crowd of 450 people inside a ballroom at the Winn Hotel about a potential Justice Obama. "I mean he’s brilliant, and he can set forth an argument, and he was a law professor, so he’s got all the credentials."  He wasn't a law professor.  He was an untenured instructor in Constitutional law, and no one knows how someone with his minimal experience got that job.  Never wrote a paper on Constitutional law, never argued a Constitutional case.  Many magic hands have moved Obama forward. 

NO KIDDING – From CBS local:   PITTSBURGH (KDKA) — Young adults who spend a lot of time on social media during the day, or check it frequently throughout the week are more likely to suffer sleep disturbances according to a new study.  The University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine found that doctors should now consider asking young adult patients about social media habits when assessing sleep issues.  Doctors might also ask them about all their other habits as well.  This sounds like one of these "studies" that will be refuted in the next ten minutes.  I won't give it a "like."

January 26,  2016     Permalink

WARNING FROM EUROPE – AT 10:30 A.M. ET:  After a few weeks, a terrorist attack becomes part of our past, not our present.  But repeated warnings are coming from Europe that terrorist attacks, larger and larger, will be part of our future.  From, of all sources, Britain's left-wing Guardian: 

Islamic State is actively focusing its attention on conducting large-scale attacks in Europe similar to those last year in Paris, the head of the EU’s law enforcement agency has said.

Rob Wainwright, the head of Europol, the Hague-based organisation that coordinates EU policing efforts over terrorism and organised crime, said Isis had “developed a new combat-style capability to carry out a campaign of large-scale terrorist attacks on a global stage, with a particular focus in Europe”.

His comments, at a meeting of interior ministers in Amsterdam, came as France’s interior minister said Islamist terrorists had planned to attack another concert in Paris and carry out a mass killing in the streets of the capital.

Bernard Cazeneuve was defending the government’s decision to maintain a state of emergency imposed after the shootings and bombings across Paris on 13 November, which left 130 people dead, including 89 at the Bataclan concert hall. Isis claimed responsibility.

Cazeneuve said that since last spring the country’s intelligence services had foiled 11 terrorist attacks, some of which had been ordered by the Islamic State attackers behind the Paris atrocities.

Wainwright, a Briton who previously had a senior role at the Serious Organised Crime Agency, was unveiling a Europol report on the changes to operations by militant Islamist groups.

He said: “So-called Islamic State has a willingness and a capability to carry out further attacks in Europe, and of course all national authorities are working to prevent that from happening.”

COMMENT:  ISIS undoubtedly is working on plans to attack in the United States, the Great Satan.  The question is whether the group will try to use terror to influence our presidential election, and in what way.

January 26, 2016       Permalink

BLUNTNESS FROM TED – 8:58 A.M. ET:  I admire Ted Cruz because he gives us, at some risk to himself politically, an honest statement of his beliefs.  And even he is warning that Donald Trump could be unstoppable within the Republican Party.  From CNN: 

Des Moines, Iowa (CNN) Ted Cruz on Monday offered a remarkably candid assessment of the race for the Republican nomination: Donald Trump "could be unstoppable" if he wins the Iowa caucus.

Cruz, the Texas senator who is running neck-and-neck with Trump in Iowa polling, urged a gathering of evangelical pastors on Monday to coalesce around his candidacy in order to defeat the billionaire real estate mogul, according to video obtained by the Christian Broadcasting Network and The Brody File. CNN has not independently obtained the video.

"If Donald wins Iowa, he right now has a substantial lead in New Hampshire, if he went on to win New Hampshire as well, there is a very good chance he could be unstoppable and be our nominee," Cruz said in the recording.

"So even if you're thinking about another candidate, the simple reality is there's only one campaign that can beat Trump in this state, and if conservatives simply stand up and unite, that's everything," Cruz said.

Speaking a week before Iowans head to the caucuses, Cruz characterized the race between himself and Trump as "an absolute dead heat."

COMMENT:   There will be "stop Trump" movements, but "stop" movements almost always fail.  When people see the need for them, it's usually too late. 

January 26, 2016       Permalink

TRUMP GETS EVEN STRONGER – AT 8:39 A.M. ET:  A new CNN poll chronicles what must be called the Trump phenomenon.  There is an angry Republican electorate out there – angry for good reason – and its champion is Donald Trump.  From CNN:

Washington (CNN) Donald Trump has hit a new high in the race for the Republican nomination, according to a new CNN/ORC Poll, with more than 4-in-10 Republican voters nationwide now saying they back the billionaire.

And more than two-thirds of Republicans say he's the candidate most likely to capture their party's presidential nomination.

Trump has topped the 40% mark for the first time in CNN/ORC polling, standing at 41%. That more than doubles the support of his nearest competitor, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who notches 19% support in the poll. No other candidate hit double-digits. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio landed at 8%, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 6%, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 5%, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 4%, and the rest at 3% or less.

Despite the new high-mark for Trump, the GOP race remains fairly stable compared with where it was in the most recent CNN/ORC poll in late December.

In that poll, Trump stood at 39%, Cruz at 18% and Rubio at 10%. Carson's 4-point dip, from 10% to 6%, between the two surveys is the largest change in the field, and it is not large enough to be a statistically significant change given the new poll's 5-point margin of sampling error.

Trump's lead is clearly significant, however, and the poll finds him well ahead of the field among a range of GOP subgroups. He leads among both men and women, younger and older voters, white evangelicals, conservatives and both self-identified Republicans and independents who lean toward the party.

COMMENT:  But recent polls also show Trump as losing to Hillary Clinton in the general election.  And that's the real election.  When the Dems start showing those video clips of Trump being vulgar, or thuggish, or appearing to be bigoted, he could be in trouble.  The media will be vigorously against him.  Hillary might well outclass him in a debate.  She's a very good debater, and, in truth, she knows alot. 

But Hillary could be taken down by an FBI investigation.  Think Trump against Biden. 

Enough intrigue for you?

January 26,  2016     Permalink

JANUARY 25,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:57 P.M. ET: 

SOUR NATION – From Glenn Harlan Reynolds at USA Today:   According to a recent Associated Press poll, the public lacks confidence in government. And by “lacks confidence,” I mean “really lacks confidence.” Specifically, “More than 6 in 10 respondents expressed only slight confidence — or none at all — that the federal government can make progress on the problems facing the nation in 2016.”  And this isn’t just Republicans in a sour mood after seven years of Obama. As the AP noted, “Perhaps most vexing for the dozen or so candidates vying to succeed President Barack Obama, the poll indicates widespread skepticism about the government's ability to solve problems, with no significant difference in the outlook between Republicans and Democrats.”  Maybe people are wising up.  Of course, when kids get to college they'll learn that government is the answer to every problem.  It will take them until 50 to unlearn that.

NO CREDIT – From CNBC:  Have you made mistakes regarding your credit in the past? That could haunt you ... for a long time.  A whopping 68 percent of Americans make at least one major financial mistake, or "credit fumble," before turning 30, leading to a negative mark on their credit report, according to a Credit Karma survey.  These mistakes include overspending on credit cards, missing payments, defaulting on a loan or having an account sent into collections, the survey found.  The greater the offense, the longer it will reflect on your credit report, said Bethy Hardeman, chief consumer advocate at Credit Karma. In fact, it usually takes consumers seven to 10 years to erase negative marks from their credit, thanks to the Fair Credit Reporting Act.  That 68 percent figure is awful.  Either young people are horribly squeezed by the Obama economy, or they're grossly irresponsible.  Parenting is involved. 

WE HOPE – From Daily Caller:   Chairman of the Benghazi Select Committee Trey Gowdy says the results of the Committee will be “eye-opening” and “surprising.”  Appearing on the Hugh Hewitt Show on Monday, Hewitt asked Gowdy, “Do you believe the question has been asked and answered adequately, yet, as to whether or not assets were proximate and available that night to come to the assistance to the people under attack in Benghazi?”  “Hugh, I will tell you this. When we issue our report, and hopefully, it is coming sooner rather than later, I think that part of our investigation is going to be the most eye-opening, the most surprising, and frankly, will dwarf the other two tranches of Benghazi in terms of what we have been able to find,” Gowdy claimed.  That better be correct because Gowdy and his committee flopped big time in their open hearing, which was long, boring, and seemingly aimless.  We'll give Gowdy a second chance to get it right.

January 25,  2016     Permalink

WE ARE WARNED – AT 10:28 A.M. ET:  A chilling new ISIS video shows the Paris terrorists committing other atrocities before they launched their Paris horror show.  From Fox:

PARIS – New video released by the Islamic State group on Sunday shows the extremists who carried out the Nov. 13 attacks in Paris committing atrocities in IS-controlled territory while plotting the slaughter in the French capital that left 130 people dead and hundreds injured. The group also threatened to attack Britain.

The 17-minute video shows the extent of the planning that went into the multiple attacks in Paris, which French authorities have said from the beginning was planned in Syria. The video was provided online by the SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors jihadi websites.

All nine militants seen in the video died in the Paris attacks or their aftermath. Seven of the attackers — four from Belgium and three from France — spoke fluent French. The two others — identified by their noms de guerre as Iraqis — spoke in Arabic.

Seven of the militants, including a 20-year-old who was the youngest of the group, were filmed standing behind bound captives, described as "apostates," who were either beheaded or shot.

"Soon on the Champs-Elysées," says Samy Amimour, who was raised in a Paris suburb near the French national stadium, as he holds a captive's head aloft.

The Nov. 13 attacks targeted a packed concert hall, a restaurant and cafe, and a soccer match at the national stadium.

COMMENT:  ISIS is the most sophisticated terror operation we've seen yet, and the most audacious.  We must never assume that they're stupid because they're evil.  The people who ran the Nazi legal system were among the best lawyers in Germany. 

This video was clearly released as a warning to us that ISIS will strike again.  And it will.  And we will need a real president next time to deal with the threat.  We may not get one this November.

January 25, 2016       Permalink

TRUMP TRIUMPHS – AT 9:56 A.M. ET:  Like him or not, Donald Trump is on a roll.   The man has a political knack.  He fights and fights back.  He's all over his opponents.  I don't favor his nomination, but I cannot deny his effectiveness.

Right now he's fighting off a major challenge from Ted Cruz, and it seems to be working.  From Fox: 

With just over a week until the first 2016 election contest, Donald Trump takes the lead in Iowa -- and maintains his big advantage in New Hampshire.

That’s according to the latest round of Fox News state polls on the Republican presidential nomination contest.

Trump bests Ted Cruz in Iowa and now receives 34 percent support among Republican caucus-goers. Trump was at 23 percent in the Fox News Poll two weeks ago (January 4-7).

Cruz is second with 23 percent -- down a touch from 27 percent. Marco Rubio comes in third with 12 percent, down from 15 percent. No others garner double-digit support.

Among caucus-goers who identify as “very” conservative, Cruz was up by 18 points over Trump earlier this month. Now they each receive about a third among this group (Cruz 34 percent vs. Trump 33 percent).

There’s been a similar shift among white evangelical Christians. Cruz’s 14-point advantage is now down to a 2-point edge.

COMMENT:  Cruz has been hurt by Trump's questioning of Cruz's legal eligibility to be president.  Also, Trump has changed his speaking style somewhat, something that's been noted by several analysts.  He's trying to sound more like a presidential candidate and less like a political thug.  When he speaks calmly, and without rancor, he can be effective.

January 25, 2016       Permalink 

PERRY FOR CRUZ – AT 8:45 A.M. ET:  Former Texas Governor Rick Perry, himself a onetime presidential candidate, has endorsed Ted Cruz for president.  Cruz is, of course, a Texas senator.  From the Washington Examiner:

Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry has endorsed Sen. Ted Cruz for president.

"It's a great privilege to endorse Ted Cruz," Perry said on Fox News Monday morning of his home state senator, adding that he has "really gotten to know" Cruz over the past few months.

He's "probably one of the best listeners I've ever been engaged with on the political front," Perry said. "I am convinced from day one that this very committed conservative will be ready from day one to be commander and chief."

Perry also called Cruz a "principled conservative," who will stand up for an issue even if it isn't the popular one and has not compromised his views over time.

COMMENT:  Will the endorsement mean anything?  Endorsements usually don't.  But, if I were a candidate, I'd rather have endorsements than not have them.  Perry might have some influence in the Southwest, and with his extensive network of political pros.  He was, at one time, the longest-serving governor, and had a good record in Texas.

January 25,  2016     Permalink